OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Window 26 Aug 2026, 11:01 UTC → 26 Aug 2026, 12:31 UTC

Price at window start 7¢ → at trigger 6¢ → at close 6¢

YES down · NO up

Resolves 01 Oct 2026, 03:59 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 7¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 6¢ (band 6¢–11¢)
band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 5.7× this market's 7-day norm, $52.7k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $3.0k/$5.4k within 10¢

Book 1.8:1 ask, $3.0k/$5.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

26 Aug 2026, 11:01 UTC: Band breach (lower): 7¢ → 6¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@DeItaone · X: posted 1h 43m before the break

IRAN TIES HORMUZ REOPENING TO END OF WAR Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US lifts its naval blockade and the war ends permanently, including fighting in Lebanon. Meanwhile, Iran and Oman are discussing a temporary shipping route through the strait and plans to remove sea mines. President Trump maintains that all mines have already been cleared.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 6¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 6¢, held +0.5ptspts
Peak move: +0.5pts
Held 100% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: yes
Price at close: 6¢
Graded from 173 snapshots