Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 7¢ at window start → 6¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 6¢ (band 6¢–11¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 ask, $2.7k/$4.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.2× this market's 7-day norm, $1.8k in 24h

Book 1.6:1 ask, $2.7k/$4.2k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 26 Aug 2026, 16:07 UTC: Band breach (lower): 7¢ → 6¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.13× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 6¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 6¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +0.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 6¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots