Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 53¢ at window start → 55¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 54¢ (band 49¢–54¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 4.7:1 bid, $30.1k/$6.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $15.0k in 24h

Book 4.7:1 bid, $30.1k/$6.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 03:03 UTC: Band breach (upper): 53¢ → 54¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.2× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 55¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 55¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 55¢
• Graded from 174 snapshots