Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.6pts: 74¢ at window start → 73¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 74¢ (band 74¢–80¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.1× this market's 7-day norm, $46.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 8.9:1 ask, $7.0k/$62.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $3.8k, 9.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 908 trades / 7d

Book 8.9:1 ask, $7.0k/$62.3k within 10¢ · spread 0.1¢

Triggers (3)

• 25 Aug 2026, 19:48 UTC: Band breach (lower): 74¢ → 74¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 20:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 74¢ → 69¢ (-4.6pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 21:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 69¢ → 72¢ (+3.1pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.08× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 140 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 73¢, drift +0.3pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 68¢, held +6.5ptspts
• Peak move: +7.3pts
• Held 22% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 73¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots