When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 6¢ at window start → 8¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 6¢ (band 3¢–6¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 10.4× this market's 7-day norm, $11.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.0:1 bid, $9.4k/$4.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $800, 5.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 448 trades / 7d

Book 2.0:1 bid, $9.4k/$4.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 19:57 UTC: Band breach (upper): 6¢ → 7¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@Polymarket · X: posted moments before the break

JUST IN: Iran & Oman are reportedly nearing an “interim framework” to reopen the Strait of Hormuz through a temporary maritime corridor.

View the post

Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 44 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 7¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 8¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 8¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots