US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.8pts: 3¢ at window start → 4¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.3× this market's 7-day norm, $81.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.7:1 bid, $12.0k/$3.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.2k, 2.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 857 trades / 7d

Book 3.7:1 bid, $12.0k/$3.2k within 10¢ · spread 0.5¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 10:00 UTC: Band breach (upper): 3¢ → 5¢ (+1.4pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.47× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 29 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 5¢, drift -0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 5¢, held +1.3ptspts
• Peak move: +1.4pts
• Held 52% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 4¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots