US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 13¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 11¢ (band 8¢–11¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.9:1 bid, $23.7k/$12.3k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $45.2k in 24h

Book 1.9:1 bid, $23.7k/$12.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 20:02 UTC: Sustained reprice: 13¢ → 16¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.75× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 16¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 14¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 57% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots