US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 11¢ at window start → 12¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 11¢ (band 8¢–11¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 8.6:1 bid, $44.7k/$5.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $27.5k in 24h

Book 8.6:1 bid, $44.7k/$5.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 09:18 UTC: Band breach (upper): 11¢ → 12¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.25× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 48 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 12¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 12¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 67% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 12¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots