US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +8.0pts: 41¢ at window start → 49¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 36¢ (band 26¢–36¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 3.2× this market's 7-day norm, $300.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 bid, $15.2k/$6.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.0k, 4.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,150 trades / 7d

Book 2.4:1 bid, $15.2k/$6.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (6)

• 25 Aug 2026, 19:57 UTC: Sustained reprice: 41¢ → 46¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC: Sustained reprice: 46¢ → 50¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 20:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 50¢ → 54¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 20:18 UTC: Sustained reprice: 54¢ → 48¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 20:52 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 45¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 21:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 49¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.5× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 187 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 49¢, drift +3.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 47¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +15.5pts
• Held 52% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 49¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots