US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +12.0pts: 30¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 35¢ (band 26¢–35¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.0× this market's 7-day norm, $156.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.6:1 bid, $8.4k/$3.2k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.0k, 4.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 694 trades / 7d

Book 2.6:1 bid, $8.4k/$3.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 25 Aug 2026, 08:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 30¢ → 33¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 08:25 UTC: Band breach (upper): 33¢ → 35¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 09:11 UTC: Sustained reprice: 35¢ → 39¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.39× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 115 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 35¢, drift +1.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 33¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +12.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no data
• Price at close: 42¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots