US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.4pts: 76¢ at window start → 80¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 73¢ (band 67¢–73¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $18.1k/$15.4k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $907, 2.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 976 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $58.9k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 bid, $18.1k/$15.4k within 10¢ · spread 1.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC: Sustained reprice: 76¢ → 80¢ (+3.8pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.62× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 105 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 80¢, drift +0.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 78¢, held +1.8ptspts
• Peak move: +4.4pts
• Held 77% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 80¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots