US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.0pts: 42¢ at window start → 39¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 35¢ (band 26¢–35¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.4× this market's 7-day norm, $215.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.1:1 bid, $17.7k/$4.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $5.5k, 4.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 854 trades / 7d

Book 4.1:1 bid, $17.7k/$4.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 11:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 42¢ → 38¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.39× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 26 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 38¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 38¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 39¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots