US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -7.0pts: 48¢ at window start → 41¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 36¢ (band 26¢–36¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.6× this market's 7-day norm, $342.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 4.1:1 bid, $8.6k/$2.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $7.7k, 7.4× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,301 trades / 7d

Book 4.1:1 bid, $8.6k/$2.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 25 Aug 2026, 22:03 UTC: Sustained reprice: 48¢ → 44¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 22:21 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 38¢ (-5.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.39× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 52 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 44¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 40¢, held +8.0ptspts
• Peak move: +10.0pts
• Held 70% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 41¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots