US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 38¢ at window start → 40¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 35¢ (band 26¢–35¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 2.9× this market's 7-day norm, $263.0k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.5:1 bid, $11.9k/$4.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $9.4k, 7.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 946 trades / 7d

Book 2.5:1 bid, $11.9k/$4.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 25 Aug 2026, 13:44 UTC: Sustained reprice: 38¢ → 43¢ (+5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 14:04 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 39¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.56× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 89 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 43¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 38¢, held +0.0ptspts
• Peak move: +6.0pts
• Held 33% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 40¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots