US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.1pts: 72¢ at window start → 75¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 72¢ (band 67¢–72¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $28.3k/$25.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $58.9k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $28.3k/$25.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 09:46 UTC: Band breach (upper): 72¢ → 76¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.63× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 22 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 76¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 76¢, held +4.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 71% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 75¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots