UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.5pts: 15¢ at window start → 20¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 15¢ (band 12¢–15¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 4.3× this market's 7-day norm, $3.1k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $1.4k/$1.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.3k, 9.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 85 trades / 7d

Book 1.1:1 bid, $1.4k/$1.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

• 25 Aug 2026, 18:41 UTC: Band breach (upper): 15¢ → 16¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 19:01 UTC: Sustained reprice: 16¢ → 20¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 7 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 16¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 20¢, held +4.5ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 20¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots