Texas Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 50¢ at window start → 51¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 50¢ (band 47¢–50¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 ask, $220.4k/$247.3k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $18.0k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 ask, $220.4k/$247.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 12:29 UTC: Band breach (upper): 50¢ → 51¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 13 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 51¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 51¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 51¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots