Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 10¢ at window start → 13¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 7¢ (band 4¢–7¢)
  band from 162 hourly obs / 6.9d
• VOLUME 7.7× this market's 7-day norm, $781.8k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.7:1 bid, $45.7k/$16.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $34.3k, 55.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,412 trades / 7d

Book 2.7:1 bid, $45.7k/$16.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 23:52 UTC: Sustained reprice: 10¢ → 13¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 38 min before the break

MARCO RUBIO HAS TOLD U.S. ALLIES THAT WASHINGTON DOES NOT PLAN TO RESUME MAJOR STRIKES ON IRAN FOR NOW, INSTEAD SHIFTING TOWARD SANCTIONS, THE NAVAL BLOCKADE AND INCREASING OIL SHIPMENTS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ - AXIOS

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 48 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 14¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 13¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 13¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots