OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Window 25 Aug 2026, 16:56 UTC → 25 Aug 2026, 18:26 UTC

Price at window start 7¢ → at trigger 8¢ → at close 7¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 7¢ at window start → 7¢ at close
VOLUME 1.7× this market's 7-day norm, $168.0k in 24h
BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $47.7k/$45.9k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $896, 2.3× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,435 trades / 7d

Book 1.0:1 bid, $47.7k/$45.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

25 Aug 2026, 16:56 UTC: Band breach (upper): 7¢ → 8¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 31s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 31 min before the break

OMANI FOREIGN MINISTER: I AM HOPEFUL WE WILL SOON ANNOUNCE A TEMPORARY CORRIDOR FOR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND PRACTICAL ARRANGEMENTS TO RESTORE SAFE NAVIGATION

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
13 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 8¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 8¢, held +1.0ptspts
Peak move: +1.0pts
Held 0% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: yes
Price at close: 7¢
Graded from 181 snapshots