Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 36¢ at window start → 37¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 36¢ (band 30¢–36¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $250.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 bid, $60.6k/$39.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $7.1k, 5.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,288 trades / 7d

Book 1.6:1 bid, $60.6k/$39.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 15:37 UTC: Band breach (upper): 36¢ → 37¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@financialjuice · X: posted 3 min before the break

Omani and Iranian Foreign Ministers discussed a phased framework that would provide a practical and implementable basis to resume safe navigation through the Strait Of Hormuz - Joint Statement.

View the post

Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 35 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 37¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 37¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots