Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
Window 25 Aug 2026, 12:35 UTC → 25 Aug 2026, 14:05 UTC
Price at window start 7¢ → at trigger 7¢ → at close 8¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Frozen payload
REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 7¢ at window start → 8¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 7¢ (band 4¢–7¢) band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $46.5k/$39.0k within 10¢
WIRE Wire: @DeItaone T+57m, link confidence 75%: "TRUMP ORDERS CUTS TO U.S.-SOUTH KOREA MILITARY DRILLS
President Donald Trump said he instructed Pete Hegseth to subs…"
VOLUME 1.2× this market's 7-day norm, $125.4k in 24h
Book 1.2:1 bid, $46.5k/$39.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢
Triggers (1)
25 Aug 2026, 12:35 UTC: Band breach (upper): 7¢ → 7¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
35 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
+2m after alert: 8¢, drift +0.5pts in the alert direction