Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +4.0pts: 36¢ at window start → 40¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 36¢ (band 30¢–36¢)
  band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.4× this market's 7-day norm, $321.4k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.0:1 bid, $39.3k/$37.7k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $7.2k, 4.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,365 trades / 7d

Book 1.0:1 bid, $39.3k/$37.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 25 Aug 2026, 19:47 UTC: Band breach (upper): 36¢ → 37¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 19:59 UTC: Sustained reprice: 37¢ → 43¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 20:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 43¢ → 39¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@unusual_whales · X: posted 30 min before the break

Oman and Iran have agreed on a proposed framework to resume safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz that includes establishing a joint temporary shipping lane and a mine-clearing project in the waterway, per MiddleEastEye

View the post

Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.17× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 83 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 37¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 42¢, held +6.0ptspts
• Peak move: +9.0pts
• Held 44% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 40¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots