OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Window 25 Aug 2026, 19:44 UTC → 25 Aug 2026, 21:14 UTC

Price at window start 7¢ → at trigger 8¢ → at close 10¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 7¢ at window start → 10¢ at close
OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 7¢ (band 4¢–7¢)
band from 164 hourly obs / 7.0d
VOLUME 4.7× this market's 7-day norm, $480.5k in 24h
BOOK Book 3.3:1 bid, $77.0k/$23.2k within 10¢
UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $11.3k, 24.0× this market's typical big trade
size baseline: 95th pct of 1,540 trades / 7d

Book 3.3:1 bid, $77.0k/$23.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (2)

25 Aug 2026, 19:44 UTC: Band breach (upper): 7¢ → 8¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
25 Aug 2026, 20:00 UTC: Sustained reprice: 8¢ → 11¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@unusual_whales · X: posted 26 min before the break

Oman and Iran have agreed on a proposed framework to resume safe navigation through the Strait of Hormuz that includes establishing a joint temporary shipping lane and a mine-clearing project in the waterway, per MiddleEastEye

View the post

Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
101 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 8¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 11¢, held +4.0ptspts
Peak move: +4.0pts
Held 75% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 10¢
Graded from 180 snapshots