Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 7¢ at window start → 7¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $46.6k/$41.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $9.3k, 24.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,458 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.0× this market's 7-day norm, $99.3k in 24h

Book 1.1:1 bid, $46.6k/$41.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 10:18 UTC: Band breach (upper): 7¢ → 8¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@DeItaone · X: posted 45 min before the break

IRAN VOWS RETALIATION AS U.S. TIGHTENS SANCTIONS Iran threatened military and economic retaliation after Washington expanded sanctions targeting its economy and oil trade. The U.S. sanctioned 60 individuals, entities and vessels, while warning countries trading with Iran they could lose access to the dollar-based financial system. However, major Chinese banks were spared for now. Tensions remain high around the Strait of Hormuz, where oil flows have fallen sharply and a tanker was struck Tuesday. Diplomatic efforts continue, but no lasting solution has emerged.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 70 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 8¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 7¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 7¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots