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Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -5.0pts: 70¢ at window start → 65¢ at close
• VOLUME 2.3× this market's 7-day norm, $616.7k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.6:1 ask, $66.2k/$107.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $10.2k, 5.3× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 6,536 trades / 7d

Book 1.6:1 ask, $66.2k/$107.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 25 Aug 2026, 18:54 UTC: Sustained reprice: 70¢ → 73¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 19:05 UTC: Sustained reprice: 73¢ → 70¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 19:42 UTC: Sustained reprice: 70¢ → 66¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.18× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 677 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 73¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 68¢, held -2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 65¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots