South Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +42.0pts: 57¢ at window start → 100¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 81¢ (band 65¢–81¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 18.3× this market's 7-day norm, $5.0M in 24h
• BOOK Book one-sided bid, $889.6k/$0 within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $176.3k, 93.2× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 8,987 trades / 7d

depth $889,631/$0 within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (10)

• 25 Aug 2026, 23:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 57¢ → 73¢ (+15.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 23:10 UTC: Sustained reprice: 73¢ → 80¢ (+7.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 23:14 UTC: Sustained reprice: 80¢ → 86¢ (+6.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 23:17 UTC: Band breach (upper): 86¢ → 87¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 23:25 UTC: Sustained reprice: 87¢ → 91¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 23:36 UTC: Sustained reprice: 91¢ → 95¢ (+4.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 23:40 UTC: Sustained reprice: 95¢ → 89¢ (-6.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 23:43 UTC: Sustained reprice: 89¢ → 84¢ (-5.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 23:46 UTC: Sustained reprice: 84¢ → 97¢ (+13.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 25 Aug 2026, 23:59 UTC: Sustained reprice: 97¢ → 100¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.94× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1387 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 68¢, drift -5.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 94¢, held +36.0ptspts
• Peak move: +42.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 100¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots