Ohio Senate winner?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.5pts: 53¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 53¢ (band 50¢–53¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 6.7× this market's 7-day norm, $13.6k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 ask, $142.5k/$187.8k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.4k, 1.5× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 188 trades / 7d

Book 1.3:1 ask, $142.5k/$187.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 17:01 UTC: Band breach (upper): 53¢ → 54¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 12 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 55¢, drift +1.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 54¢, held +1.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 54¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots