Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.5pts: 28¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 26¢ (band 26¢–39¢)
  band from 163 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 ask, $1.8k/$2.5k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.9× this market's 7-day norm, $4.3k in 24h

Book 1.4:1 ask, $1.8k/$2.5k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 20:08 UTC: Band breach (lower): 28¢ → 26¢ (-1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@DeItaone · X: posted 15 min before the break

U.S.-IRAN CEASEFIRE REPORTEDLY NEARS The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a ceasefire agreement, with an announcement expected in the coming days, RIA Novosti reported, citing Pakistani and Iranian military sources. The reported deal includes free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed negotiations under the Islamabad Memorandum. Neither Washington nor Tehran has confirmed the agreement, while Oman and Iran separately proposed a temporary mechanism to restore Strait traffic.

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.12× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 26¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 27¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 26¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots