Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -3.5pts: 45¢ at window start → 41¢ at close
• BOOK Book 2.1:1 ask, $1.1k/$2.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.5× this market's 7-day norm, $3.1k in 24h

Book 2.1:1 ask, $1.1k/$2.4k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 20:19 UTC: Sustained reprice: 45¢ → 42¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.16× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 42¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 41¢, held +3.5ptspts
• Peak move: +3.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 41¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots