OUTSIDE BAND FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?

Window 25 Aug 2026, 23:32 UTC → 26 Aug 2026, 01:02 UTC

Price at window start 39¢ → at trigger 38¢ → at close 38¢

YES down · NO up

Resolves 01 Jan 2027, 04:59 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 39¢ at window start → 38¢ at close
BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $1.3k/$1.9k within 10¢
VOLUME 0.7× this market's 7-day norm, $4.0k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 ask, $1.3k/$1.9k within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (1)

25 Aug 2026, 23:32 UTC: Band breach (lower): 39¢ → 38¢ (-0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context artifact

@FirstSquawk · X: posted 18 min before the break

MARCO RUBIO HAS TOLD U.S. ALLIES THAT WASHINGTON DOES NOT PLAN TO RESUME MAJOR STRIKES ON IRAN FOR NOW, INSTEAD SHIFTING TOWARD SANCTIONS, THE NAVAL BLOCKADE AND INCREASING OIL SHIPMENTS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ - AXIOS

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Shown as timing context from the sources TruthPing watches. Its appearance near the move is an observation, not an explanation.

Context

Opening move ≈ 0.03× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 38¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
+30m: 39¢, held -0.5ptspts
Peak move: +1.0pts
Held 50% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: yes
Price at close: 38¢
Graded from 180 snapshots