Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 42¢ at window start → 43¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 42¢ (band 39¢–42¢)
  band from 166 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 1.9× this market's 7-day norm, $3.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 3.8:1 bid, $51.7k/$13.7k within 10¢

Book 3.8:1 bid, $51.7k/$13.7k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 10:23 UTC: Band breach (upper): 42¢ → 43¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 43¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 43¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 43¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots