China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.0pts: 33¢ at window start → 33¢ at close
• BOOK Book 3.8:1 bid, $30.9k/$8.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.6× this market's 7-day norm, $31.1k in 24h

Book 3.8:1 bid, $30.9k/$8.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 25 Aug 2026, 01:22 UTC: Band breach (upper): 33¢ → 34¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.32× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 34¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 34¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 33¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots