OUTSIDE BAND
FINALISED: FROZEN
Kalshi
Best AI at the end of 2026?
Window 25 Aug 2026, 01:20 UTC → 25 Aug 2026, 02:50 UTC
Price at window start 69¢ → at trigger 70¢ → at close 69¢
YES up · NO down
Resolves 31 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC
Frozen payload
- REPRICED Repriced -0.1pts: 69¢ at window start → 69¢ at close
- BOOK Book 1.8:1 ask, $7.0k/$12.8k within 10¢
- VOLUME 1.3× this market's 7-day norm, $5.9k in 24h
Book 1.8:1 ask, $7.0k/$12.8k within 10¢ · spread 2.5¢
Triggers (1)
- 25 Aug 2026, 01:20 UTC: Band breach (upper): 69¢ → 70¢ (+1.2pts), confirmed over 30s
Context
- Opening move ≈ 0.37× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
- 13 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)
Outcome: graded at window close
- +2m after alert: 70¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
- +30m: 70¢, held +0.5ptspts
- Peak move: +1.1pts
- Held 0% of the peak move at close
- Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
- Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
- Gave back half within 60m: yes
- Price at close: 69¢
- Graded from 180 snapshots