Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 72¢ at window start → 73¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 72¢ (band 69¢–72¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 3.1:1 ask, $140.9k/$438.9k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $6.6k, 13.9× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,614 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $88.5k in 24h

Book 3.1:1 ask, $140.9k/$438.9k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 24 Aug 2026, 17:41 UTC: Band breach (upper): 72¢ → 73¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 30 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 73¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 73¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 73¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots