Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 51¢ at window start → 54¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.3:1 bid, $25.5k/$19.0k within 10¢
• VOLUME 11.1× this market's 7-day norm, $15.3k in 24h

Book 1.3:1 bid, $25.5k/$19.0k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 24 Aug 2026, 03:09 UTC: Sustained reprice: 51¢ → 54¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.6× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 8 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 54¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 54¢, held +3.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 54¢
• Graded from 173 snapshots