Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 93¢ at window start → 94¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.7:1 bid, $18.7k/$10.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $8.3k in 24h

Book 1.7:1 bid, $18.7k/$10.9k within 10¢ · spread 3.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 24 Aug 2026, 19:50 UTC: Band breach (upper): 93¢ → 95¢ (+1.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.43× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 1 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 95¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 94¢, held +0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.5pts
• Held 33% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 94¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots