US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 15?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +3.0pts: 80¢ at window start → 83¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 81¢ (band 71¢–81¢)
  band from 133 hourly obs / 5.6d
• BOOK Book 7.9:1 ask, $26.8k/$211.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $61.3k in 24h

Book 7.9:1 ask, $26.8k/$211.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 24 Aug 2026, 05:14 UTC: Band breach (upper): 80¢ → 82¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.21× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 82¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 82¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +3.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 83¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots