US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.1pts: 73¢ at window start → 73¢ at close
• BOOK Book 1.2:1 bid, $26.4k/$22.5k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $743, 2.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 1,057 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 0.8× this market's 7-day norm, $58.9k in 24h

Book 1.2:1 bid, $26.4k/$22.5k within 10¢ · spread 0.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 24 Aug 2026, 15:04 UTC: Band breach (upper): 73¢ → 73¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.09× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 15 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 73¢, drift +0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 73¢, held +0.3ptspts
• Peak move: +0.8pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 73¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots