US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 36¢ at window start → 37¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 36¢ (band 26¢–36¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 1.8:1 bid, $18.4k/$10.1k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.5k, 2.0× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 472 trades / 7d
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $67.1k in 24h

Book 1.8:1 bid, $18.4k/$10.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (3)

• 24 Aug 2026, 08:38 UTC: Band breach (upper): 36¢ → 36¢ (+0.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 24 Aug 2026, 08:47 UTC: Sustained reprice: 36¢ → 40¢ (+4.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 24 Aug 2026, 09:12 UTC: Sustained reprice: 40¢ → 37¢ (-3.5pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.05× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 22 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 36¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 38¢, held +2.0ptspts
• Peak move: +4.5pts
• Held 22% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 37¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots