Number of rate cuts in 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.3pts: 87¢ at window start → 87¢ at close
• BOOK Book 31.0:1 bid, $51.3k/$1.7k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.6× this market's 7-day norm, $2.4k in 24h

Book 31.0:1 bid, $51.3k/$1.7k within 10¢ · spread 0.6¢

Triggers (1)

• 24 Aug 2026, 18:18 UTC: Band breach (upper): 87¢ → 89¢ (+1.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.53× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 26 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 88¢, drift -0.1pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 88¢, held +0.8ptspts
• Peak move: +1.6pts
• Held 0% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 87¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots