Next Fed rate hike?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.5pts: 57¢ at window start → 57¢ at close
• BOOK Book 12.6:1 bid, $40.7k/$3.2k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.4× this market's 7-day norm, $3.1k in 24h

Book 12.6:1 bid, $40.7k/$3.2k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 24 Aug 2026, 00:19 UTC: Band breach (upper): 57¢ → 58¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.14× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 5 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 58¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 56¢, held -0.5ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 50% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 57¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots