Israel closes its airspace by August 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -0.5pts: 2¢ at window start → 2¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 2¢ (band 2¢–5¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.5:1 ask, $2.0k/$3.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.5× this market's 7-day norm, $30.0k in 24h

Book 1.5:1 ask, $2.0k/$3.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.1¢

Triggers (1)

• 24 Aug 2026, 08:36 UTC: Band breach (lower): 2¢ → 2¢ (-0.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.18× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 2 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 2¢, drift +0.2pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 2¢, held +0.6ptspts
• Peak move: +0.8pts
• Held 59% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: yes
• Price at close: 2¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots