Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 12¢ at window start → 14¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 12¢ (band 9¢–12¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 19.5× this market's 7-day norm, $23.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 2.4:1 bid, $8.0k/$3.3k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $1.6k, 5.8× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 202 trades / 7d

Book 2.4:1 bid, $8.0k/$3.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 24 Aug 2026, 09:22 UTC: Band breach (upper): 12¢ → 13¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 4 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 13¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 13¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +2.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 14¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots