Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +2.5pts: 31¢ at window start → 34¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 31¢ (band 27¢–31¢)
  band from 168 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.8× this market's 7-day norm, $10.2k in 24h
• BOOK Book 1.1:1 bid, $8.8k/$7.8k within 10¢

Book 1.1:1 bid, $8.8k/$7.8k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 24 Aug 2026, 15:10 UTC: Band breach (upper): 31¢ → 33¢ (+2.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.44× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 33¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 34¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 34¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots