Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +8.5pts: 34¢ at window start → 42¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 32¢ (band 28¢–32¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 4.0× this market's 7-day norm, $2.9k in 24h
• BOOK Book 15.9:1 bid, $3.4k/$216 within 10¢

Book 15.9:1 bid, $3.4k/$216 within 10¢ · spread 2.0¢

Triggers (4)

• 24 Aug 2026, 04:20 UTC: Sustained reprice: 34¢ → 47¢ (+13.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 24 Aug 2026, 04:33 UTC: Sustained reprice: 47¢ → 44¢ (-3.0pts), confirmed over 30s
• 24 Aug 2026, 04:52 UTC: Sustained reprice: 44¢ → 47¢ (+3.5pts), confirmed over 30s
• 24 Aug 2026, 05:07 UTC: Sustained reprice: 47¢ → 43¢ (-4.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 2.6× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 33 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 45¢, drift -2.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 46¢, held +12.5ptspts
• Peak move: +14.0pts
• Held 61% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 42¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots