Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +0.7pts: 57¢ at window start → 58¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 57¢ (band 53¢–57¢)
  band from 169 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 1.4:1 bid, $12.2k/$8.9k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.4× this market's 7-day norm, $3.1k in 24h

Book 1.4:1 bid, $12.2k/$8.9k within 10¢ · spread 0.4¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 13:17 UTC: Band breach (upper): 57¢ → 58¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.23× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 58¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 58¢, held +0.9ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 75% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 58¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots