REPRICED FINALISED: FROZEN Polymarket

Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Window 23 Aug 2026, 13:56 UTC → 23 Aug 2026, 15:26 UTC

Price at window start 85¢ → at trigger 88¢ → at close 87¢

YES up · NO down

Resolves 04 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC

Frozen payload

REPRICED Repriced +2.0pts: 85¢ at window start → 87¢ at close
VOLUME 2.6× this market's 7-day norm, $12.7k in 24h
BOOK Book 3.4:1 ask, $19.0k/$65.3k within 10¢

Book 3.4:1 ask, $19.0k/$65.3k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

23 Aug 2026, 13:56 UTC: Sustained reprice: 85¢ → 88¢ (+3.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

Opening move ≈ 1× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
3 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

+2m after alert: 87¢, drift -0.5pts in the alert direction
+30m: 88¢, held +3.0ptspts
Peak move: +3.0pts
Held 67% of the peak move at close
Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
Gave back half within 60m: no
Price at close: 87¢
Graded from 181 snapshots