Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -2.0pts: 28¢ at window start → 26¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 27¢ (band 27¢–30¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• VOLUME 3.5× this market's 7-day norm, $49.3k in 24h
• BOOK Book 37.3:1 ask, $1.4k/$51.6k within 10¢
• UNUSUAL SIZE Largest trade $2.0k, 5.7× this market's typical big trade
  size baseline: 95th pct of 481 trades / 7d

Book 37.3:1 ask, $1.4k/$51.6k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 09:26 UTC: Band breach (lower): 28¢ → 27¢ (-1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 10 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 27¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 25¢, held +2.5ptspts
• Peak move: +2.5pts
• Held 80% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: yes
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: yes
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 26¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots