Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced -1.0pts: 92¢ at window start → 91¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: below the lower bound 92¢ (band 92¢–97¢)
  band from 165 hourly obs / 7.0d
• BOOK Book 82.3:1 ask, $3.7k/$304.4k within 10¢
• VOLUME 1.1× this market's 7-day norm, $12.8k in 24h

Book 82.3:1 ask, $3.7k/$304.4k within 10¢ · spread 0.5¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 14:18 UTC: Band breach (lower): 92¢ → 91¢ (-1.6pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 22 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 92¢, drift -0.7pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 92¢, held +0.9ptspts
• Peak move: +1.6pts
• Held 61% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 91¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots