Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

Frozen payload

• REPRICED Repriced +1.0pts: 32¢ at window start → 33¢ at close
• OUTSIDE BAND Outside the 7-day band: above the upper bound 32¢ (band 29¢–32¢)
  band from 167 hourly obs / 6.9d
• BOOK Book 2.9:1 bid, $11.8k/$4.1k within 10¢
• VOLUME 0.1× this market's 7-day norm, $1.3k in 24h

Book 2.9:1 bid, $11.8k/$4.1k within 10¢ · spread 1.0¢

Triggers (1)

• 23 Aug 2026, 13:53 UTC: Band breach (upper): 32¢ → 33¢ (+1.0pts), confirmed over 30s

Context

• Opening move ≈ 0.33× the market's trusted 7-day band width at trigger time
• 0 trades printed in the window (Polymarket public tape)

Outcome: graded at window close

• +2m after alert: 33¢, drift +0.0pts in the alert direction
• +30m: 33¢, held +1.0ptspts
• Peak move: +1.0pts
• Held 100% of the peak move at close
• Still beyond trigger at +10m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +30m: no
• Still beyond trigger at +60m: no
• Gave back half within 60m: no
• Price at close: 33¢
• Graded from 180 snapshots